CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23770/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-18T02:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 624.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 682.364 Acceleration: -0.914843 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 259366.08 Duration in days: 3.0019223 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.91 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 18/02/2023 Time: 02:14 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 36.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-02-16T13:58Z
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